Last Sunday, Macron’s reelection was welcomed with overwhelming joy by the democratic world. Enthusiastic posts and tweets coming from abroad flooded social media. Yet, while it is tremendously good news for Europe, the presidential election left a bittersweet taste in France. Fending off Marine Le Pen is only a won battle, but the war on populism and the far-right threat is far from over.
Macron’s victory isn’t a landslide one, and it might not be durable in terms of long-term effects. This incertitude comes mainly from three aspects concluding the deciding runoff.
Despite losing the election, Marine Le Pen scored 41.5%, compared to 33.9% in 2017. The percentage doesn’t necessarily reflect Le Pen’s growing popularity, but it is a sign of increasing sympathy for far-right and eurosceptic parties. And as such, this result may be a worrying harbinger of a possible dangerous shift in the future. Similarly, as Macron won the debate, better-prepared Le Pen proved that the Rassemblement National doesn’t lay its weapons and works ceaselessly towards victory. Moreover, it cannot be ruled out that Zemmour’s campaign could, in the long run, help the far-right gain more political leverage.
It is also clear that Macron isn’t a conviction-inciting candidate anymore. Many votes that secured the reelection were cast with a heavy heart as the only way to save French democracy. Macron made a wise decision by showing understanding of the situation during his victory speech, but it’s not likely to appease the frustration of those looking for a change. The election reached probably its most threatening point when hundreds of university students blocked schools to protest the choice between Macron and Le Pen. It was, in fact, calling to overturn the integrity of the election by selecting the next president through a coup. In other words, France was on the verge of witnessing its version of the 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol.
The anti-Macron sentiment was also palpable in the lowest turnout in a presidential runoff since 1969, and over three million blank or spoilt ballots. Being opposed to far-right and eurosceptic parties might no longer be a trump card in the next election.
Although Macron’s second term is now secured, reinforcing French democracy will be a crucial challenge for the next five years. The re-elected president has now to focus on the upcoming legislative election, called “the third round’. Should he fail, his presidential powers will be significantly limited. Such curbed ability to advance his program could contribute to a decline in already severely damaged trust, strengthening his opponents’ positions.
With the third-highest score in the first round of the presidential election, Jean-Luc Mélenchon has emerged from the deeply divided French Left as Macron’s second rival representing the far-left France Insoumise movement. Mélenchon has successfully won the sympathy of young French people who are disappointed in Macron’s first term in office. Among the protesters who blocked schools against Le Pen and Macron, many were Mélenchon’s supporters. Some of his voters backed the far-right candidate in the runoff. A similar situation occurred in the 2017 election, but fewer people voted for Le Pen in the second tour than initially declared. However, growing aversion to the incumbent president may play an increasingly important role. Mélenchon intends to rally his supporters to win the upcoming parliamentary election and become prime minister.
It should also be taken into account that the divisions between the representatives of the two extremes are smaller than they might seem. Despite Melenchon being a left-wing candidate, his Eurosceptic and fairly pro-Russian views are the common points with Marine Le Pen, whom he opposes. Reluctance toward Macron may also consolidate the voters of both candidates to the extent that one of them may win in the next election. The Rassemblement National party might as well change its strategy or put forward a new candidate that won’t be as controversial as Le Pen. Ultimately, if Macron fails and a convincing new candidate is not found, both French democracy and the stability of Europe could be at risk.
No matter how much relief Macron’s victory may have brought, it marks only the beginning of a long, arduous struggle to unite polarized France. If pro-democratic and pro-European opposition rests on its laurels, the dire prospect of the populist rule could be a delayed sentence.
by Anda Mistel
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